First step product definition and digital data collection
Any research on the potential needs of countries needs to set a certain standard for the definition of market productivity. After trying different options and matching them with the market results, I found that the best way is to assume that a country is more productive than other countries. It takes more effort to study this country because there is no available data. Among the many options, I assume that the countries with the highest global income and highest per capita income have the highest market productivity. High income is not a sufficient condition (for example, China has high income, but per capita income is very low, so it can not be considered as the country with the highest production efficiency.) Total income can be generated in many ways, including domestically produced product income (for (Industrial category) or total disposable income (for the household category, the population is multiplied by the national per capita income or population per household per capita income). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are countries with higher per capita income, but when it comes to production efficiency, because of the low level of national total income (or total domestic production) in these countries, high per capita income levels cannot Production efficiency brings greater benefits. These oil export countries are subject to OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), such as the United States or the United Kingdom.
Since not every country is above the average industrial income line given by the OECD, I can only select a few research subjects. Countries with sufficient digital data related to production efficiency include the United States, the United Kingdom, and France and Germany.
Therefore, the "potential demand" can be assessed by using the figures related to the market's production efficiency collected by an independent investigation agency. By analyzing the raw data, we can get the definition of "electrophotographic printing ink". In this report, the data are total numbers and there is no further breakdown. In other words, any other product or service may be digitally printed and integrated into one category. Public digital resources rarely pay attention to and protect companies that may monopolize the market. These resources tend to focus on the public cause. While private data survey agencies can investigate any area of ​​the market, this report is based on the analysis of the average public digital resources, but does not combine a variety of different comprehensive data. In other words, this report does not give overall data. Of course, its starting point is the whole, and the analysis has produced a research report suitable for all countries.
Note: The "electronic photographic printing inks" referred to in this report are defined by the North American Industrial Standardization System (NAICS).
The second step of filtering work
Based on the concept of electronic photosensitive printing ink defined above, we try to collect data from similar countries, and their positions in the value chain are similar. This is done to facilitate comparative studies. If this continuous curve does not show a similar fiscal year, it will need to be adjusted accordingly. In order to eliminate the short-term effects of the business cycle, it is necessary to use a two-year moving average for adjustment to make it smooth (the longer measurement period will not have a greater impact on the results). If data were obtained from one country but the short-term anomalies reflected in those data were caused by changes in external conditions (such as the effects of beef due to foot-and-mouth disease), these data should obviously be filtered out of the analysis.
The third step is to fill in missing data
In some countries, data is decentralized, while some countries can only obtain data for a year. Bayesian's point is that it should take a lot of effort to predict these "lost years." Assuming other factors remain unchanged, these "lost years" need to be estimated from the changes and growth of the country's average income. Based on the most important long-term consumption function theory (already defined), a country's missing data can be estimated based on the curve of past economic data.
Step 4 Variable Parameters and Nonlinear Evaluation
Using the data obtained in the above three steps, the potential demand assessment attached to the country uses the “variable parameter cross-regional time series modelâ€. Simply put, the impact of income on “potential demand†in many countries can be assumed to be constant unless there is evidence that this effect is variability (that is, the stepwise impact of income is not necessarily the same for all countries. ). On the other hand, the "potential demand" of the electronic photosensitive printing ink market is more suitable for countries with the same economic development conditions (that is, African countries will have a similar "potential demand" structure to control the income among the African countries' associations. Variety)
Step 5 Fixed Parameters and Linear Evaluation
Assume that the filtered data in the centralized consumption is non-linear. Since today the world is composed of more than 200 countries, there are always some countries, especially those located at the bottom of consumption activities, that cannot be simply assessed with nonlinearity. In the long run, if a country does not have current income, the “potential demand†for the digital printing ink market is assumed to be zero. Imagine that if the circulation income falls to zero, the reserve wealth will quickly fall (ie, the country will be in a low-income level and will eventually be unable to use its reserves to demand for electronic photosensitive printing inks).
Step 6 Collection Datum
Based on the model described above, the "potential demand" figure is to evaluate all countries in the world, including the smallest economic entity. They are the total of the total number of societies and the total number of regions. The purpose is to make this data more meaningful, more regional, and average global demand. As the figures are described in more comprehensive terms, the minor contradictions are made public.
Step 7 "Latent demand density": City cross allocation
Due to the emergence of a “no regional society,†cities have become an important measure in terms of priority markets relative to regions, roads or countries. From an economic point of view, perhaps a city does not represent the population in a strictly geographical area. To an economist or decision planner, a city has a stronger market influence than an adjacent region. This influence can be from one industry to another, or from one period to another.
The same is true for national data, and readers need to recognize that the “potential demand†of a city does not necessarily represent real sales. For many projects, "potential demand" can be clearly reflected in the seller, for example in food or housing projects. Consider the "satellite delivery method." We clearly see that many cities in the world have not made any market preparations. However, the means of mediation of core interests (such as telecommunications, etc.) are "consumed" by residents and urban industries in cities around the world. There is no city, in other words, the global market is still lower than the overall demand of the society for satellite-based market. When the area that may be allocated may require influence on neighboring areas, not all cities in each country will be assessed. If some cities in the same country have greater economic wealth than other cities, then the population of the city is generally considered to have nothing to do with "potential demand." Of course, what is more important is the level of dynamic economy between cities.
Source: Bison